Most project management standards advocate performing qualitative risk analysis to prioritize and subsequently address high-priority risks. Unfortunately, common risk assessments only use probability and impact. These two dimensions, although widely advocated, are inadequate in analyzing project risks qualitatively.

What good is it to know the probability and impact of a risk if we have no clue on how easily (or difficult) we can detect it? In order to better perform qualitative risk analysis, we need to add a third dimension—the project’s ability to detect a risk.

Based on historical records, we can determine the probability of when a tornado or earthquake may occur during certain times of the year for specific locations. Likewise, we can determine its impact. But, what if we don’t have an early detection system? Our best probability analysis will not prevent us from getting blindsided.

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